GB Market Commentary 26/07/2021
by Marcus Sotiriou
Bitcoin has bounced back tremendously this morning as it reclaimed the 50 week EMA at around $34,000 (shown in green) with a bullish engulfing candle. Following this weekly close Bitcoin impressively flew higher to over $39,000, as it attempts to print a 6th consecutive daily green candle. This adds light to the argument that the daily close below $30,000 was merely a deviation below the range. The upside has been capped however by the 21 week EMA (shown in blue) which is believed by many to be the bull market support band, hence acting as a strong resistance.
Furthermore, Bitcoin has broken out of a 6 month long downtrend on the RSI, after a failed breakout 2 weeks ago. In comparison, this time the breakout has been clean and decisive, suggesting this could be the start of a major trend reversal. However, Bitcoin needs to recover the range high of $42,000 approximately to be technically bullish.
According to an insider, Amazon is looking to accept Bitcoin payments by the end of the year. They explained that once a fast and established method pf payment for Bitcoin has been established, it would move on to other cryptocurrencies like Cardano, Ethereum and Bitcoin Cash. The insider said “It won’t take long because the plans are already there, and they have been working on them since 2019”. It has also been claimed that Amazon are looking into launching their own native token by 2022. Furthermore, new job posts show that Amazon are hiring a digital currency and blockchain expert., proving the growing interest in cryptocurrency by institutions.
Regulatory crackdown has been very prevalent recently in the cryptocurrency market. The US, for example, have set up a presidential advisory group to issue recommendations about stablecoin regulations within the next few months. Also, France have been pushing for EU-wide regulation and have proposed that the EU governments give the responsibility of regulating cryptocurrencies to the Paris-based European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), instead of national regulators. Lastly, China has banned Bitcoin mining and prohibited banks’ use of cryptocurrencies. Most people are fearful of the incoming regulations for the industry. However, I feel that this will have a positive impact as there are many investors waiting for the industry to gain more clarification from government regulators. Binance US, for instance, are looking to go public via an IPO, despite Binance being hard-pressed by regulators internationally. A move like this would boost Binance’s legitimacy and give investors assurance about Binance’s future.
Last year we saw DeFi Summer 2020, as DeFi tokens experienced tremendous growth in July and August. As people have been expecting DeFi Summer 2.0 in 2021, it seems as though this is evolving into Gaming Summer. Crypto games like Axie infinity and Sandbox are seeing adoption metrics that are reminiscent of DeFi TVL (Total Value Locked) growth last year. This has been fuelled by the play-to-earn business model which has allowed gamers in low income countries, like the Philippines, Indonesia and Venezuela, to earn a higher income than what they get from their real world jobs. Those who view crypto games from a traditional gaming lens will have a hard time understanding this phenomenon. Similar to DeFi creating an alternative financial system, crypto games are creating an alternative virtual economy. As there are few crypto games currently available, most of the interest is being concentrated into games like Axie Infinity and Sandbox – a Mine Craft looking NFT metaverse. Sandbox have recently signed a deal with the popular TV show the Walking Dead which will be bringing zombie themed assets to their NFT world. Axie Infinity and Sandbox revenues have been increasing vastly recently, which will entice more start-ups to create play-to-earn games, and hence crypto funds will have to add exposure to this category.