GB Market Commentary 17/01/2022
by Marcus Sotiriou
Bitcoin is currently hovering around $42,800, with some telling signs that this price region could be a good buying opportunity. Data from Glassnode shows that short term holders (investors who bought Bitcoin within the past 3 months) is at a historically low level of 3 million (shown by the chart below). This figure is the lowest since August 2020, which preceded a 500% rally in price. A low level of short term holders could forego a pump for Bitcoin because this type of investor tends to sell for quick profits, as opposed to institutions who typically hold for at least 6 months.
Will more sovereign states adopt Bitcoin in 2022?
In a report by Fidelity on crypto trends and their potential future impact, they discussed the adoption of cryptocurrency by sovereign nations. They said they wouldn’t be surprised to see two more nation states acquire Bitcoin this year after El Salvador decided to make Bitcoin legal tender last Summer and buy Bitcoin frequently since. Fidelity explained, “We also think there is very high stakes game theory at play here, whereby if Bitcoin adoption increases, the countries that secure some bitcoin today will be better off competitively than their peers. Therefore, even if other countries do not believe in the investment thesis or adoption of Bitcoin, they will be forced to acquire some as a form of insurance.”
The CEO of deVere is more optimistic and thinks there will be three more countries to adopt Bitcoin as legal tender this year. I agree that more countries will follow El Salvador in 2022, particularly South American countries that are severely impacted by inflation. Paraguay and Brazil are reported to be looking to adopt Bitcoin on a national level, and this kind of adoption would dramatically decrease the volatility of Bitcoin over time.